Blog

Advice for Investors and Analysis of the Current Market

Federal Reserve chairman Powell gave markets a big bucket of ice water reality this week, saying circumstances are dire, more stimulus will be needed, and it’s not a good time to focus on the federal debt, since federal executive branch stimulus is needed now.  Also, he basically said that we are probably looking at a protracted, Nike swoosh sort of recovery over the coming years.  No V. The number one thing I have been saying is that patience is your friend, and this is no time to be in a hurry to put money to work, or be aggressive.  The

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COVID-19 and the Economy

On Wednesday, April 29 I hosted an interactive briefing call with more than 100 listeners to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the economy. Please listen and share.  https://youtu.be/k7XD9BWi8rM

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An Existential Moment for Texas Shale

Predictably, the Saudi-Russian oil war against U.S. shale and the entire rest of the world ended quietly earlier this week.  Neither Saudi Arabia nor Russia had the will (nor, arguably, the level of stupidity) to throw shade at U.S.producers while they unnecessarily threw away tens to hundreds of billions of dollars of surplus currency reserves for no apparent rational purpose.  While hailed within the U.S. media for giving life to the oil and gas industry, this is a mistaken and misleading conclusion to make. First, oil supply would have been curtailed naturally, without cartel agreements, as there is not enough storage to hold oil being generated due to the collapse in

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Annandale Capital – Latest Newsletter

Most people are aware that the Confucian adage “may you live in interesting times” may actually serve more as a curse, to the more viciously intentional and ironic.  Considering Covid-19 most likely came from a wet market in Wuhan, China, or a virus laboratory nearby, a nod to Confucius today seems appropriate indeed. Be careful asking for “interesting” in life.  We certainly have achieved that in the first three months of 2020.  From January until mid-February, the U.S. stock market continued to set record after record after record.  And in the two months since, we’ve entered a bear market and

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On Markets, Predictions, and Geopolitics

It’s amusing to watch professional economists and “market experts” try to protect the future level of economic retraction, how many millions of Americans will lose their jobs (it may be in the tens of millions), how long they will lose their jobs for, how long the recession will last, whether it will turn into a depression, how fast the recovery will be off the bottom, what industries will look like post-virus, on and on and on. Nobody knows.  It’s complete guesswork. What we go know for certain is we are going to have at least a recession (defined as two

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My Perspective on Coronavirus and the Economy

By George Seay As coronavirus fears mount, and as the US stock market continues its enormous volatility to the upside and downside, both, Americans and specifically investors should focus on the long term.  We are undoubtedly in for at least several months of economic, social, and health hits from the virus, and fears appear likely to mount further.  A key thing to watch is when cases outside of China plateau and decline, as they already have in China.  This event will likely signal most, if not all of the damage to the global markets and economies will have occurred by

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Giving Tuesday — The force of American compassion and charity is epic when we all come together

How fitting that December 3 is known as “Giving Tuesday” or “National Giving Day” and that it falls five days after Turkey Day, following Thanksgiving Week. Americans have been a grateful and generous people throughout our history. It seems intuitive to our tribe to be thankful, as almost every American comes from an immigrant family originally, typically coming to our great country with almost nothing except hope, and a deep desire for freedom and a fresh start. One of my ancestors came over on the Mayflower as an indentured servant, earning his freedom in the New World over time. On the

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My thoughts on the Democratic debate with KTRH

I discussed my thoughts on what to expect for tonight’s Democratic debate on KTRH: “They’re going after Biden, because if they get rid of him then it’s a brand new playing field. You have Sanders fading, Biden is barely hanging, and Warren is surging.”

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Forget the Past – The U.S. / U.K. “Special Relationship” Must Adapt to Remain Truly “Special”

A few weeks back, the United Kingdom’s distinguished Ambassador to the United States Kim Darroch found himself in hot water.  Sure, what he said was far kinder than what the “mainstream media” has said and continues to say about President Trump, but he’s a diplomat.  His diplomatic secrecy was shattered by an unknown mischief maker in the British government, designed to take him out as Ambassador to the U.S. and embarrass both his government and President Trump.  The ambassador’s resignation confirms the mischief maker was at a minimum, partially successful.  While the episode was mostly trivial and somewhat amusing (except

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